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Regulations proposed for participation in the paper market for commodities will likely reduce investment demand

Global – Regulations proposed for participation in the paper market for commodities will likely reduce investment demand. Peril: Regulatory Risk Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: Commodities Trading, Banks, Financial Services  Analysis: On 13 June 2011, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy demanded stricter regulation of commodities markets, especially trading in the paper market, citing that raw material and food inflation threatened

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Argentina: A dispute between US-based Mosaic and port workers increases the risk of port disruptions in Santa Fe, affecting soy exports.

Rafael Gomes

Analysis: Port workers in the city of Rosario, Santa Fe, are likely to go on strike next week over a dispute with US fertiliser company Mosaic. The workers, who are part of the Argentinean Ports Union (SUPA), have prevented the loading and unloading of Mosaic’s shipments at Rosario’s San Martin port for a week, and are currently demanding the incorporation

Venezuela- Food firms are likely to see profit margins squeezed because of price controls and inflation

Rafael Gomes

Perils: Regulatory Risks Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: Food Industry/All Sectors Analysis: On 3 May 2011, the Central Bank announced that annual inflation had reached 22.9% in the first quarter of 2011. Although Planning Minister Jorge Giordani portrayed this as a victory, stating that the government had planned to lower annual inflation to 20% by 2012, there are worrying signs that lead

Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast): The risk of disruption to cargo and cocoa exports is likely to rise over the next month due to a resurgence of violence in Abidjan.

Rafael Gomes

Perils: War, Terrorism Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: All Sectors, Cargo Analysis: Following the arrest of former President Gbagbo on 11 April 2011, Exclusive Analysis assessed that the levels of violence in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire’s commercial capital, would drop for a period of no more than three months before intensifying. There are now growing indications that violence will once again increase in the

China – Regulatory Risk: New anti-bribery laws are likely in the next three years, raising risks of lawsuits against foreign firms competing with state firms.

Rafael Gomes

In February 2011, China passed an amendment to its bribery law that enters into force on 1 May 2011. The vague, single sentence amendment bans the payment of bribes to foreign officials for commercial gain, but fails to clarify the law’s jurisdiction, define bribery or address permitted payments. In its present form, the amendment can be read as applying not

Guinea: Increasing food and fuel costs will lead to large protests in Conakry and other cities in the next few weeks.

Rafael Gomes

Opposition, civil society and unions plan to stage large protests in Conakry and other major urban centres over the next few weeks over increasing food and fuel costs. Implications: President Alpha Conde, who took power in the December 2010 elections after a drawn-out democratic transition process, has failed to curtail the deteriorating economic situation in his first 100 days in

A lack of effective policing leaves increasing risks of theft and extortion to cargo and grain warehouses by drug cartels unopposed

Rafael Gomes

Perils: Terrorism Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: Cargo, Agriculture Analysis: On 22 March 2011, the Mexican warehouse association Aagede reported that organised criminals had started to targeted warehouses containing corn and vegetables in Mexico’s northern Sinaloa state. Their statement follows a 15 March robbery of 250 tonnes of corn from a warehouse owned by Graneros Unidos Jova in the industrial

Food exporters, especially from north-eastern Japan, are at high risk of having their export orders cancelled in the coming month.

Rafael Gomes

Peril: Contract Risk Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: All Sectors Analysis: In the past week, a number of countries have imposed screening of imports, primarily of food products, from Japan. These include China (including Hong Kong), Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand, while the European Union has recommended that member states start scanning imports as well. These measures come after reports

Cote d’Ivoire: Nationalisation of the cocoa sector is likely to lead to higher operating costs for trading firms still operating in the country

Rafael Gomes

Peril: Contract Risk Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: Cocoa trading Analysis: On 7 March 2011, incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo issued a decree taking control of the country’s purchase and export of cocoa. Cote d’Ivoire is the world’s largest cocoa exporter (producing 40% of the world’s cocoa), with the main cocoa production areas located in the southwest of the country, which

Russia is likely to lift its wheat export ban in July 2011 due to relatively better harvest expectations.

Rafael Gomes

Peril: Contract Risk Sectors, Assets or Individuals Affected: Agriculture/Wheat exports Analysis: A 12 February 2011 government decree, published on 16 February, states that the government is taking extra precautionary measures to cap diesel and gasoline prices sold to agricultural producers at 1 November 2010 prices, with a further 10% discount. Oil companies, rather than the state, will cover the shortfall